Despite their charge to set districts’ courses and priorities, superintendent turnover has minimal effect on students’ academic performance, but the impact is most acute in districts already most prone to turnover in the top position, according to a new study.
The research—conducted by Christopher Redding and Steven Carlo at the University of Florida— is the first to explore the topic of superintendent turnover and student achievement in a decade and comes as superintendent turnover has been on the upswing since the pandemic amid high-profile political clashes and mounting challenges to students’ academic recovery, staff morale, and school budgets.
Superintendent turnover has increased in recent years since the pandemic’s start. More than 40 percent of districts experienced at least one change in superintendent between the 2019-20 and 2023-24 school years, and 8 percent experienced at least two changes, according to researchers at the Superintendent Lab. In 2023-24 alone, a fifth of the nation’s 500 largest school districts replaced their superintendent, according to the ILO Group.
The study found that student achievement generally decreases in the years after a superintendent’s departure, by a statistically significant, but small, amount.
Superintendent turnover is most detrimental to large, urban, and high-poverty school districts, where leadership turnover tends to be most common.
But, the research says the more pronounced negative outcomes could be explained by instability in the district that led to the superintendent’s departure, whether it be already low student achievement or conflict among the administration or community. In other words, the same factors that may cause superintendent turnover could explain the declines in student achievement.
“I think it’s interesting that we do see a relationship between turnover and student achievement, but it’s maybe not too surprising that the relationship itself isn’t very large in magnitude,” Redding said.
The research does not answer why superintendent turnover and student achievement are related.
But, Redding said, it could be surprising that superintendent turnover doesn’t have a greater effect on student achievement.
A change in district leadership can equate to a change in priorities, disruption to ongoing programs and initiatives, changes in instructional culture and staff morale, and loss of institutional knowledge. It may also take longer for new initiatives intended to improve student outcomes to filter through the district as new leadership learns the ins and outs, the study said.
But superintendents are, organizationally, far removed from the actual day-to-day classroom teaching, and it’s not uncommon for other district leaders to remain in their roles even under a new administration, meaning the loss of institutional knowledge is attenuated and helps ensure the continuity of effective programs, the researchers said.
“Where we’d like to have more clarity than we do, maybe with future studies, is why we’re seeing these effects,” Redding said. “There’s a number of these possibilities that we’re unfortunately just not able to speak to about what specifically is driving that relationship.”
Impact of superintendent turnover is most pronounced in large and high-poverty districts
The research is based on districts in Florida and Texas from the 2009-10 school year to 2017-18. Though not representative of schools nationwide, the states enroll about 17 percent of American public school students, the study says, and include districts of varying sizes and with a mix of racial demographics and socioeconomic backgrounds. To conduct their analysis, Redding and Carlo compared trends in student achievement in districts where a superintendent departed to the trends of comparable districts where there was no turnover.
The average turnover rate across both states was 18 percent in each year of the study period. During that period, more than a quarter of districts had two superintendent departures.
In districts that experienced superintendent turnover, student achievement in core subjects like math and reading began to drop in the year after the departure, though the amount was small, and continued for about four years. The results were slightly more pronounced in larger districts, and districts that enrolled more students who live in poverty.
The caveat, Redding said, is that in some districts, students’ achievement was beginning to decline prior to a superintendent’s departure.
“So there is a question of, is it really the superintendent’s departure that had caused those decreases in those districts? Or maybe it was just that achievement was declining before, and that was part of why they either chose to leave or perhaps were pushed out by their board,” Redding said.
The estimated relationship between turnover and student achievement was “near zero” in lower-poverty districts and districts located in suburban and rural areas, Redding said.
Districts should prioritize positive superintendent-school board relationships
State education leaders and school boards should pay “particular attention to superintendent well-being in higher-poverty districts,” the study said, to limit turnover and its effects on students.
It is important for other leaders in these districts to establish and maintain collaborative and uplifting relationships with the superintendent. Such strong, internal relationships among top district leaders can reduce the likelihood of an external, superintendent-school board conflict that contributes to a superintendent’s resignation or firing, the study said.
“There isn’t a lot of existing research in this area to really guide practice and policies, so, as a research community, I don’t think we know a lot about what can be done to really create supportive conditions for superintendents who are wanting to stay,” Redding said. “But our work really does point to this notion that board-superintendent relations are probably really important.”
Redding also suggested that districts “really consider what their succession planning looks like,” to ensure that when there is superintendent turnover there is a plan for continuity of programs and initiatives to minimize disruptions.
Carlo added that districts and leadership programs should invest in ongoing professional development and training for district leaders to continue to adjust to and navigate through an ever-changing educational landscape.
“There’s always programs for teaching and learning, particularly in these high-poverty districts, to support teachers,” Carlo said, “but are there leadership programs built in, and PD, and things like that for the superintendents?”
