Researchers may have found a connection between heightened immigration enforcement arrests and a decline in test scores among students whose home language is Spanish, according to a new working paper.
David Figlio, a professor of economics and education at the University of Rochester, and his co-author, Umut Özek, analyzed student-level data from a school district in Florida for the school years from 2022-23 to 2024-25. They also examined Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) apprehension data for Florida during those years using deportationdata.org, which compiles such information from public records requests.
Because the researchers did not have access to the exact locations of apprehensions, they instead focused on the nationality of those apprehended in the state. Figlio hypothesized that students sharing the nationality of those apprehended could still feel the impact of the arrests even if the incident didn’t happen nearby.
Researchers found that as immigration apprehensions spiked among nationalities shared by students in a given school in the district, Hispanic students’ standardized state test scores declined on average, and the decline was greater among students whose home language is Spanish. The drop in Spanish-speaking students was the same for U.S.-born and foreign-born students.
“What this is suggesting is [that] this is not just an effect borne by foreign-born students regardless of immigration status. This is an effect on U.S. citizens as well,” Figlio said.
The new study, with credible results, adds to prior research that has found immigration raids and interior immigration enforcement can have substantial effects on families and their children, said Thomas Dee, a professor at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Education.
“At some level, I think it’s fair to describe these activities as traumatic for kids, and so we would expect that to be reflected in test scores and longer run measures,” Dee said.
The new study builds on past research on immigration enforcement effects
Though the new study is not yet peer-reviewed, Figlio said the findings have major implications for educators, especially as they work to assess long-term effects of increased immigration enforcement across the country.
Additional findings in the study included that:
- The negative effects on test scores were concentrated among middle and high school students;
- Previously struggling, or low-performing, students experienced steeper drops, though high-achieving students also saw test scores drop;
- And rates of disciplinary incidents among Hispanic and Spanish-speaking students fell during spikes in immigration enforcement.
Future qualitative research could help explain why these patterns emerged, Figlio said. But even now, the findings highlight the need for educators to recognize how immigration enforcement might shape school experiences, and are not limited to foreign-born students.
Figlio added that the results from Florida add to past research findings that capture the broad implications of federal immigration policy changes.
Earlier this year, Dee from Stanford studied daily student absence data from five school districts in California’s Central Valley across three school years, including 2024-25, to identify any impact from immigration raids happening in the area.
He found that student absences rose by 22% after local immigration raids began in January 2025, compared with expected levels based on the previous two school years.
In earlier research published in 2020, Dee and co-author Mark Murphy examined districts near local police departments partnering with ICE under 287g agreements, which allow local officers to identify and detain undocumented residents. In analyzing national data, they found that Hispanic student enrollment dropped 10% within two years in districts where 287g agreements were in effect nearby.
“It suggests families are undertaking compelled migration in response to these activities,” Dee said.
Researchers continue to monitor immigration enforcement effects on schools
Figlio acknowledged that he and his research team stopped collecting data in May 2025, when tests were taking place, and before a national uptick in immigration enforcement activity took place, such as targeted operations in Chicago this fall.
It’s why Figlio hopes more researchers continue to monitor the widespread effects of federal immigration policies moving forward.
Dee added that the immediate effects found in studies so far related to immigration enforcement and schools add to the ongoing research about pandemic academic recovery as well.
“We’re struggling with learning loss, increased mental health problems, increases in chronic absenteeism, and enrollment loss in many districts. And I think there’s every reason to expect immigration enforcement to exacerbate each of those issues,” Dee said.
He echoed Figlio’s call for additional research on how immigration enforcement intersects with education, especially at a time when immigration policies and practices have significantly shifted from years prior, such as the removal of the longstanding policy identifying schools as “sensitive locations” off limits to ICE activities this January and ramped-up localized enforcement.
“I think it’s important that we continue to study and share what we’re learning about the effects of what is really a policy choice on our children,” Dee said.
