Where Is K-12 Enrollment Headed? Population Trends, by the Numbers

By Mark Lieberman — July 17, 2024 1 min read

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America is projected to have 3 million fewer K-12 students attending public school by 2031 than it did in 2013.

But those losses won’t be evenly distributed from one place to another, according to an Education Week analysis of federal data on K-12 enrollment and overall U.S. population trends. Some states will see as much as a 16 percent drop in school enrollment over the next decade, while a small handful of others will see gains.

Public school enrollment trends play a key role in determining school funding decisions in most state legislatures. They also factor heavily into debates over where to open and close school buildings, how to address overcrowded or underpopulated classrooms, and how to design staffing models to meet the needs of an ever-changing student body.

Experts are warning that schools need to prepare for escalating budget and logistical pressures in the coming years as factors like declining birth rates and expanding private school choice continue to wreak havoc on conventional wisdom about where Americans live and how many attend school.

Here are a few key figures that illustrate the complexity of the coming changes.

6 The number of states that saw their overall population grow by more than 3 percent between 2020 and 2023. Those states are: Idaho, Florida, Montana, South Carolina, Texas, and Utah. Federal researchers are projecting public school enrollment increases between 2022 and 2031 for all those states except Texas, where a decrease of 9 percent is projected.

18 The number of states that recorded an overall population decline between 2020 and 2023. That’s smaller than the number of states—26—that recorded a decline in K-12 enrollment over the same period. Americans are having fewer children than they were in previous decades, one of several factors contributing to a sharper decline in younger populations.

8 The number of states where the overall population grew between 2020 and 2023, but K-12 enrollment declined. The biggest gap was in Colorado, where K-12 enrollment dropped by 2.5 percent, while population increased by slightly more than 1 percent.

14 The number of states that saw increased school enrollment between 2020 and 2023 but are projected to experience a decline in overall K-12 enrollment in public schools by 2031.

16% The biggest K-12 enrollment drop predicted by federal researchers for a single state between 2022 and 2031. That drop is anticipated in Hawaii, with comparable drops above 10 percent projected for California, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and West Virginia.

3 The number of states where K-12 enrollment is projected to grow at a faster rate between 2022 and 2031 than it did between 2013 and 2022. Those states are Idaho, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The rest of states will see smaller increases or bigger decreases in the coming decade than they did in the previous one.

Mark Lieberman

Staff Writer, Education Week

Mark Lieberman is a reporter for Education Week who covers school finance.