The Cracks in Our Education Pipeline

By Charles E.M. Kolb

For half a century, the United States has been producing more college graduates than any other country, an edge that has made us a leader in the global economy. But our previous efforts are no longer enough. Today’s technologies demand a greater number of educated workers than we have ever generated before, and while other nations are rapidly expanding their college enrollments to meet that demand, we are not. In America, the share of 18- to 24-year-olds who are enrolled in postsecondary education or training has barely budged in 10 years. By continuing to do what used to be good enough, we are falling behind.

In truth, America’s higher education pipeline has always been leaky. Currently, for every 100 9th grade students in this country, only 68 reach high school graduation four years later, only 38 enter college by age 19, and only 18 earn associate’s degrees within three years or bachelor’s degrees within six years of enrolling. Some do return to school later, but the number is small, and over the last decade the percentage of midcareer adults enrolled in higher education has dropped in nearly all states.

In the past, when the U.S. workforce was growing explosively with the entry of baby boomers and women, we could tolerate such pipeline losses. Even with our high dropout rates, we were turning out large and growing numbers of college-educated workers. But the prime-age workforce (25- to 54-year-olds), which increased by 35.1 million workers between 1980 and 2000, will grow by only 3 million workers between 2000 and 2020. Whatever room we once had for educational...