Opinion
College & Workforce Readiness Opinion

Graduation Rates Are Better, But We’re Not There Yet

By John Gomperts — May 17, 2016 6 min read
  • Save to favorites
  • Print

High school graduation rates have received a lot of news coverage—and mixed reactions—in the past few months.

President Barack Obama and 19 governors hailed increasing graduation rates in their annual addresses. At the same time, leading journalists and policy wonks have raised questions about those gains and the value of a high school diploma.

How can we make sense of this optimism and skepticism? Let’s take it one step at a time.

First, there is no denying the progress in graduation rates. Just 10 years ago, the nation’s on-time high school graduation rate was hovering around 70 percent, where it had been stuck for decades. Today, the graduation rate is 82.3 percent, the highest in history. And, significantly, we’ve seen the greatest increases among students of color and students from low-income families.

BRIC ARCHIVE

As a result, over the past 12 years, there have been about 2 million additional on-time high school graduates, according to researchers at America’s Promise Alliance, of which I am the CEO. That’s great news for those young people, their families, and their communities.

It is also a success story for the nation. At a time when political discord is high and stalemate persists on Capitol Hill, the increase in high school graduation rates offers a happier narrative. This is a bipartisan success story that spans a Republican and a Democratic presidential administration and owes a great deal to former U.S. Secretaries of Education Margaret Spellings and Arne Duncan.

Spellings and Duncan shared a passion and determination to improve graduation rates. Both sought better outcomes for all students, created accountability systems, and devoted resources to creating the conditions that helped more young people succeed in school.

This is also a success story written at kitchen tables, in schools and communities where students, families, educators, and leaders of nonprofit organizations, churches, and businesses did the hard work to produce better results.

There is no magic to this work. The progress that’s been made is a testament to the fact that so many people subscribed to a big goal, changed their expectations and behaviors, and stuck with it over time. Those who are skeptical should be careful not to disparage the efforts of people who took this challenge seriously and worked hard to make it happen.

Still, this is hardly a high-five moment. More than half a million young people left high school without graduating in 2014, this year’s annual “Building a Grad Nation Report” found. And sobering graduation gaps for certain student groups persist.

Nationally, 74.6 percent of low-income students graduated on time in 2014, compared with 89 percent of non-low-income students—a gap of 14.4 percentage points. The gap for students with disabilities is more than 21 percentage points. It’s 14.7 percentage points for African-American students and 10.9 percentage points for Latino students, compared with their white peers.

But gaps are not the only trouble spot. There are still roughly 2,400 schools (with 100 or more students) that fail to achieve even a 67 percent graduation rate. Across the nation, these low-graduation-rate high schools enroll 1.23 million students.

A high school diploma doesn't guarantee success, but the lack of a diploma consigns a young person to almost-certain failure.

New research in the same report also shows that a disproportionate number of the low-graduation-rate schools with 100 or more students are alternative, charter, or virtual schools. Traditional public high schools account for 41 percent of low-graduation-rate high schools and are where a majority of the students who do not graduate on time can be found.

Although alternative, charter, and virtual schools collectively make up 14 percent of high schools and enroll 8 percent of high school students, they make up 52 percent of low-graduation-rate high schools nationwide and produce 20 percent of the students who don’t graduate.

As the national high school graduation rate continues to rise, leading media and research outlets—including The New York Times, NPR, and the Thomas B. Fordham Institute—have raised serious questions. Are some districts lowering the bar or cooking the books to increase graduation rates? What does it mean when states discontinue or change high school exit exams? Should diplomas certify that graduates are college-ready?

Overall, the evidence shows that, in most places, high school graduation rates and more-rigorous standards are rising together. The results of the National Assessment of Educational Progress’ High School Transcript Study show that the trends are moving in the right direction: In 2009, a greater percentage of high school graduates completed a curriculum that was more challenging than it was in 1990 or 2005.

Since 2009, the number of students taking the ACT and the SAT is up. If standards were lowered, one would expect scores to decrease, but they’ve stayed basically flat. The number of students taking Advanced Placement tests is also way up, as is the number of students passing at least one of them.

Recently released NAEP scores show that reading scores have stagnated, while math scores have dropped slightly. At a time of rising graduation rates, this seeming disconnect between attainment (graduation) and achievement (NAEP scores) begs for closer analysis.

Documented examples of gaming the system are comparatively rare and don’t involve enough students to have a major impact on graduation rates. For example, after admitting that dropouts had been misclassified as transfers, Chicago school officials lowered the official graduation rate for 2014 from 69.4 percent to 66.3 percent. That’s still in the same (too low) ballpark, but it is an increase over previous years.

While some see the elimination of exit exams as an indication of lower standards, Stanford University research published in 2009 (by what is now the Center for Education Policy Analysis) shows that in some states, like California, exit exams have had a negative impact on graduation rates without improving student achievement.

And several studies make the case that grade point average is a better predictor of success in college than standardized tests anyway.

Still, vigilance is warranted. The real goal is not just to graduate more young people, but to keep more young people on the path to success in adulthood. Giving false diplomas or passing students who aren’t ready helps no one.

That’s why those of us working to increase graduation rates are equally forceful in insisting that we must continue to raise the bar and the value of a diploma.

The challenge of raising graduation rates and graduation standards doesn’t lend itself to easy answers. Districts that are making progress are doing some combination of smart things, like using data to make decisions, working to increase teacher quality, raising expectations for all students, paying attention to early warning signs, adding more caring adults into the lives of young people living in challenging circumstances, fighting chronic absenteeism, and eliminating disciplinary practices that disproportionately impact students of color.

In today’s economy, a high school diploma doesn’t guarantee success, but the lack of a diploma consigns a young person to almost-certain failure. It is our responsibility to prevent schools from foreclosing their students’ futures.

We’ve demonstrated that progress is possible, and now we must redouble our efforts to help millions more young people get and stay on track to adult success.

A version of this article appeared in the May 18, 2016 edition of Education Week as Making Sense of High School Graduation Rates

Events

This content is provided by our sponsor. It is not written by and does not necessarily reflect the views of Education Week's editorial staff.
Sponsor
Teaching Webinar
Empowering Students Using Computational Thinking Skills
Empower your students with computational thinking. Learn how to integrate these skills into your teaching and boost student engagement.
Content provided by Project Lead The Way
This content is provided by our sponsor. It is not written by and does not necessarily reflect the views of Education Week's editorial staff.
Sponsor
IT Infrastructure & Management Webinar
The Reality of Change: How Embracing and Planning for Change Can Shape Your Edtech Strategy
Promethean edtech experts delve into the reality of tech change and explore how embracing and planning for it can be your most powerful strategy for maximizing ROI.
Content provided by Promethean
Reading & Literacy K-12 Essentials Forum Reading Instruction Across Content Disciplines
Join this free virtual event to hear from educators and experts implementing innovative strategies in reading across different subjects.

EdWeek Top School Jobs

Teacher Jobs
Search over ten thousand teaching jobs nationwide — elementary, middle, high school and more.
View Jobs
Principal Jobs
Find hundreds of jobs for principals, assistant principals, and other school leadership roles.
View Jobs
Administrator Jobs
Over a thousand district-level jobs: superintendents, directors, more.
View Jobs
Support Staff Jobs
Search thousands of jobs, from paraprofessionals to counselors and more.
View Jobs

Read Next

College & Workforce Readiness Q&A Graduation Rates Might Get Worse Before They Get Better
Schools must make a convincing case for why students should show up, Robert Balfanz says.
5 min read
Learning Recovery Hurdles 092023 1303680911 01
iStock/Getty
College & Workforce Readiness These Students Are the Hardest for Schools to Track After Graduation
State education chiefs are working with the Pentagon to make students' enlistment data more accessible for schools.
5 min read
Students in the new Army prep course stand at attention after physical training exercises at Fort Jackson in Columbia, S.C., on Aug. 27, 2022. The new program prepares recruits for the demands of basic training.
Students in the new Army prep course stand at attention after physical training exercises at Fort Jackson in Columbia, S.C., on Aug. 27, 2022. State education leaders are working with the Pentagon to make graduates' enlistment data part of their data systems.
Sean Rayford/AP
College & Workforce Readiness As Biden Prepares to Leave Office, He Touts His 'Classroom to Career' Work
At a White House event, the president and first lady highlighted their workforce-development efforts.
3 min read
President Joe Biden speaks at the Classroom to Career Summit in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024.
President Joe Biden speaks at the Classroom to Career Summit in the East Room of the White House in Washington on Nov. 13, 2024.
Ben Curtis/AP
College & Workforce Readiness Can the AP Model Work for CTE? How the College Board Is Embracing Career Prep
The organization known for AP courses and the SAT is getting more involved in helping students explore potential careers.
5 min read
David Coleman, CEO of the College Board, speaks at the organization's annual conference in Austin, Texas, on Oct. 21, 2024.
David Coleman, CEO of the College Board, speaks at the organization's annual conference in Austin, Texas, on Oct. 21, 2024. Long an institution invested in preparing students for college, the College Board increasingly has an eye on illuminating career options.
Ileana Najarro/Education Week