The graduating class of 2025 will be the largest, possibly ever in the nation’s history, to don their caps and gowns this spring—but a long-predicted, steady decline in the number of high school graduates will follow in most states, threatening to shake up higher education enrollment and the country’s workforce unless policymakers and education leaders intervene soon, a new report indicates.
The latest data in the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education’s 11th edition of the “Knocking at the College Door” report, released Wednesday, reaffirms consistent projections that the country is about to see a peak in high school graduates—between 3.8 million and 3.9 million—but will see a downward slope in the years to come, dropping below 3.4 million in 2041.
The impact will be felt in 38 states, but with some states affected more than others. Eight states will see a decline of 20 percent in the typical graduation class size over the next 15 years. Only the South, including Washington, D.C., will see net increases, according to the report.
The decline is based largely on population trends, but influenced by a sizeable number of students who may have left K-12 schools altogether, and a nationwide graduation rate plateau, researchers say. And the pandemic’s lingering effects on the number of students who are prepared to graduate from high school are already being felt—and could worsen the decline.
“When we look around our region and more broadly around the country, we see workforce shortages in virtually any important employment sector that you can think of—from health care, teaching, nursing, engineering to things that may not be as high on people’s radar, things like diesel technicians,” Patrick Lane, the vice president for policy analysis and research for WICHE, a nonprofit that aims to expand access to higher education, said in a press call. “But if these declining high school graduate numbers translate into even more downward pressure on enrollments, it’ll be hard to meet some of these workforce demands.”
What the data show
Only 12 states, and the District of Columbia, will see an increase in total graduates in 2041, but most will see a decline, adding up to roughly a 10 percent drop nationally.
Seven states, however, will see declines of more than 20 percent, and five high population states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania) are anticipated to account for three-fourths of the total projected decline between 2023 and 2041.
The decline is dependent on two factors, the report states: declining births, which fell sharply starting in 2008 due to the Great Recession and have continued to fall, and the rate of students progressing through school to earn diplomas.
Births have dipped nearly 1 percent each year between 2008 and 2023, with a sharp drop in 2020. Those numbers have since leveled out, but there’s still a consistent decrease, the report shows.
Increasing high school graduation rates would help offset the downturn, but wouldn’t totally halt it, according to the report. The country would have to graduate more than 95 percent of students who will be enrolled in 9th grade in 2037 to match the number of projected graduates in the class of 2025. However, for the last five cohorts, the average graduation rate is closer to 88 percent.
That 88 percent is an increase from 2010, when the average high school graduation rate was 80 percent. But because there will be fewer students in general, the number of graduates is still anticipated to decline.
A more diverse student body
Meanwhile, the K-12 system is expected to look increasingly diverse. Though white students will remain the plurality of high school graduates through 2041, the number of white students will decline by about 26 percent in that time period. At that point, white students are projected to make up roughly 39 percent of the graduating class.
The report shows that this is a steeper decline than previously projected before the pandemic, but the declines in the share of white students graduating high school have been consistent in recent years, reflecting changing birth and population trends.
Hispanic graduates are likely to be the most consistent contributor to the nation’s graduate pool, growing to almost 1.1 million in 2041 out of what’s projected to be fewer than 3.4 million graduates. They will make up almost 36 percent of the graduating class then—a sizable increase from 27 percent in 2023.
Black students will account for 12 percent of the graduating class in 2041, a decrease from 14 percent in 2023, following a negative trendline in births. The report notes that a large number of young people identify as Black and another race or ethnicity, and are therefore categorized as multiracial, which is a category expected to grow. Youth identifying as both Black and white represent the largest racial combination, the report said.
How K-12 educators and policymakers can stem the flow
The COVID-19 pandemic’s lasting effects on the K-12 education system has led to a “slightly deeper” decline than previously projected, the report said.
K-12 schools are battling high rates of chronic absenteeism and ongoing learning loss, which are threatening graduation and college readiness. Marginalized students—students with disabilities, English learners, and homeless students—have borne the brunt of the setbacks, with many of them still struggling to catch up to grade-level expectations and needing more support, even as federal dollars are waning.
Experimental evidence shows that intensive advising can increase postsecondary enrollment, which has been declining in recent years, the report says. That is especially true for underrepresented students.
In Garner High School in Garner, N.C., school counselor Stephanie Nelson has seen a hit to students’ motivation across the board. Part of that stems from remote learning during the pandemic, when students knew they would pass without having to put in the usual effort, she said.
“I think some of it is a mentality that they’re going to be pushed along,” she said. “If they’re not recognizing the importance of rigor, of standing out, of being involved and getting good grades, and how it connects to their future, that’s a problem.”
At the K-12 level, roles like Nelson’s are essential to helping more students graduate, and do it within four years, according to the report. But counselors are often stretched thin. Nationally, the caseloads of counselors is higher—385 students to one counselor—than the ratio (250 students per counselor) recommended by the American School Counselor Association.
Nelson is responsible for roughly 360 high schoolers—and that goes beyond academics; she deals with social-emotional needs, too. With a smaller caseload, she imagines she’d be able to meet more frequently with students individually.
Still, she said, her school has been pushing to cultivate a “college-going” culture, and has specific advisers who help navigate financial aid and college applications and enrollment.
Beyond class visits and individual meetings, the department looks closely at data and tries to identify at-risk students. In the 2022-23 school year, for instance, Nelson and her colleagues found that Hispanic boys were failing their courses needed for graduation at higher numbers compared to their peers. They brought together small groups and gave presentations in multi-language classes on time management and organization.
The boys recognized people cared about them, she said, which helped propel them through. All 25 students in the subgroup graduated.
This year, Nelson and her team found that Hispanic students who were freshmen last year had the highest rates of chronic absenteeism and began implementing interventions to help them.
“Being here is the easiest way to pass classes, graduate on time, and not have to recover classes failed,” Nelson said.
Beyond reducing the cost of postsecondary education, simplifying the college-going process is also helpful, the report says. The recent federal efforts to fix the Free Application for Federal Student Aid was marred by a particularly disastrous rollout, which largely affected lower-income families making less than $30,000.
Receiving information about financial aid early in the application process increased enrollment rates for low-income students, the report showed.
At Nelson’s school, educators are aiming to help students complete their FAFSA early. Counselors offer programming on applying to college during weeks where application fees are waived and and then assist with the application itself, because they know difficulty completing it can be a barrier, she said.
“We’re trying to circle back to motivation, and an understanding of—depending what they want to do—what they need to do to pursue that goal,” she said.
