Copyright YYYY, Editorial

Over the next 16 years, the number of high-school graduates is expected to drop sharply, from 2.9 million--the enrollment level for 1980-81--to 2.3 million in 1992-93, before climbing to 2.7 million by the year 2000. The figures presented below, compiled by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, the Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association, and the College Board, represent estimates for both public and private high schools in 22 states and for public schools alone in the remaining 28 states. The actual number of graduates, note the authors of the report, could be higher than the estimates given here.

1980-81

(actual)1983-841986-871989-901992-931995-961999-2000

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Alabama

• 44,89439,10738,34039,19436,97039,32439,447

Alaska

• 5,3585,4636,0426,4136,7157,7508,829

Arizona

• 28,41626,76527,52827,52326,13728,03234,262

Arkansas

• 29,41426,18325,27625,67822,33622,59123,308

California271,474248,156256,343239,213244,731271,932320,997

Colorado

• 35,99332,57234,23733,56433,14836,39045,246

Connecticut44,59839,92836,92530,54627,40528,25530,611

Delaware10,8947,7867,2786,6806,1156,4206,805

District of Columbia

• 4,8483,8703,2702,8022,4832,3862,388

Florida99,51192,17592,87396,52290,63993,848119,621

Georgia

• 62,96358,94356,69551,83353,66554,92958,862

Hawaii14,61012,61212,77212,01011,78412,80914,376

Idaho

• 12,93111,73412,20912,58513,38515,60615,789

Illinois156,981133,214125,198116,555109,620112,935118,871

Indiana80,78370,16865,17264,61460,05959,00059,384

Iowa

• 42,35535,86933,17930,55829,10231,16931,279

Kansas

• 29,39726,02725,38624,46224,06125,42728,329

Kentucky46,29742,71740,81740,54237,14037,98137,585

Louisiana54,57148,90847,66646,98847,05151,92358,349

Maine

• 15,55413,87013,23512,39311,36611,54812,156

Maryland60,89356,22852,37045,04640,66442,50048,888

Massachusetts

• 75,93467,71562,15051,99444,63445,80749,420

Michigan

• 124,372108,778102,86392,99881,15487,34386,807

Minnesota68,44358,07056,14550,56248,50452,63358,302

Mississippi

• 28,08325,75524,80223,25622,82123,18223,575

Missouri

• 60,34052,34949,03746,04642,75044,04546,466

Montana

• 11,6349,7839,4949,0229,0059,84710,569

Nebraska23,72920,47219,30219,02318,60819,58921,033

Nevada9,3758,7139,0069,1089,11110,75813,907

New Hampshire

• 11,93811,09610,68710,1458,0868,8829,672

New Jersey

• 94,15785,03279,37168,64862,00963,55466,869

New Mexico18,69316,44215,94016,04816,29318,02220,816

New York230,237206,490188,510166,220156,588155,531166,187

North Carolina

• 70,16866,06065,80364,63358,42459,07361,582

North Dakota10,7309,0378,1708,2448,3528,9249,952

Ohio154,489139,655131,817127,124116,787119,968122,666

Oklahoma

• 38,82334,52736,82838,02935,93937,71048,284

Oregon

• 29,35426,61227,26125,58025,70328,44329,938

Pennsylvania169,075150,864138,189124,876112,153113,472121,093

Rhode Island

• 10,7199,5438,4837,3656,2946,8597,404

South Carolina40,07438,25536,81837,22134,51136,37437,839

South Dakota10,4318,4437,7447,4427,4498,0308,448

Tennessee

• 51,02146,56045,13845,20141,05642,51542,888

Texas

• 171,665159,108172,179184,515189,690202,979255,370

Utah

• 19,88619,12320,92822,81126,75932,75535,055

Vermont

• 6,5136,1286,0135,6505,0915,4496,192

Virginia

• 67,14759,96859,36054,39849,35850,83056,200

Washington52,39246,89349,88946,46246,12148,48357,402

West Virginia24,30022,56522,29922,11120,60619,86018,950

Wisconsin75,69266,43261,25354,56851,89854,65659,242

Wyoming

• 6,1615,7586,2936,7327,0878,0699,598

Total2,918,3102,618,5232,544,5832,411,7552,297,4152,416,3952,677,108|

• Projections include graduates of public high schools only. All other state projections include public and nonpublic high-school graduates.

Projections are for 1998-99.

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education.