Business Outlook for Publishers Turns a Page

After a bust period of flat or declining revenues, U.S. textbook publishers are expecting a boom in the sales of K-12 instructional materials and assessment products over the next several years, according to a prominent Wall Street analyst.

The rosier outlook comes thanks to the slate of upcoming state textbook adoptions, improved forecasts for state spending on education, and the provisions under the federal No Child Left Behind Act that call for research-based instruction and annual testing of students.

“We think that after three years of lackluster growth, the boom is back in the K-12 educational publishing market,” says the report released last week by the New York City-based investment firm Goldman Sachs. Publishers of K-12 products could see the market grow 7 percent or more over the next four years, compared with virtually no sales growth from 2002 to 2004, according to “Making the Grade in 2005,” written by Peter P. Appert,...