The New Math on Graduation Rates

Persistent failure to meet performance targets for graduating more students should carry serious consequences.

By Christopher B. Swanson

Last month, the triumphant chords of "Pomp and Circumstance" echoed in auditoriums across the country. But many who had entered high school four years ago were not joining their friends for the march across the stage. As it turns out, the national graduation rate is not the widely broadcast 85 percent. In our public schools, the correct figure is much closer to 68 percent. My recent Urban Institute research also raised another alarm: Minorities nationwide have little more than a 50-50 chance of earning a diploma. For years, high dropout rates have been treated as an isolated problem plaguing only certain troubled school systems. But when nearly one- third of all students are failing to graduate, it’s time to recheck the arithmetic.

How could we be so far off the mark when it comes to something as crucial and seemingly straightforward as counting high school diplomas? In truth, graduation rates have long been relegated to a dark, dusty corner of the educational statistics enterprise. Despite widespread consensus that completing high school is a social, economic, and educational necessity, little is done to carefully or uniformly measure who gets a diploma. Now that the age of educational accountability has dawned, change is afoot.

We have the No Child Left Behind Act to thank for the unpleasant discovery of low graduation rates. For the first time, this sweeping federal legislation requires states to hold their public high schools accountable for both achievement-test scores and graduation rates. The higher stakes for schools are just starting to illuminate the extent of our high-school- completion problems. But this national crisis has yet to be...