Vouchers' Impact On Calif. Schools Tough To Predict

By Lynn Olson

The controversial school-voucher initiative on the California ballot next month could save the fiscally pressed state billions of dollars, or cost it more than $1 billion a year, according to two reports released last week.

The inconclusive analyses by the RAND Corporation and Policy Analysis for California Education, two nonpartisan research centers, leave voters without any reliable way to gauge the proposal's effects on state finances or public school expenditures.

The voucher program could increase the resources available for each public school pupil by 7 percent, the RAND report estimates, or cut those resources by 18 percent. "The bottom line is that no one...