Things are changing fast. By 2020 the majority of US children will be of color with
a wide range of childhood experiences from neglected to coddled.Young adults can be distracted but are tolerant, enterprising and hyphenated.
Over the next five years we’ll see big changes in learners and learning environments. With nearly ubiquitous mobile access, most young people inOECD countries have access to an array of free and open learning opportunities. Degree-based programs are becoming more learner-centered. Educators are benefiting from
better working conditions and career opportunities.
Following are 20 ways that learning (K-20) will change over the next five (or 10) years.
1. Broader aims. K-12 institutions are moving past a narrow focus on reading, writing and math to a broader set of career-ready outcomes including
dispositions and success skills.
Parents in El Paso said they want their children to be critical and creative thinkers, informed problem solvers, bilingual communicators, productive
citizens, and socially intelligent individuals.
A diverse group of leaders shaped a vision of Education Reimagined. They embraced
broader aims shared below as knowledge, skills, and dispositions adapted from the work of the Council of Chief State School Officers.
With more states and communities embracing broader aims, more young people will be enrolling in college with a stronger executive function resulting in
more focus and persistence.
2. Learner experience (LX). K-12 schools will incorporate more authentic, engaging, and applied learning experiences with the goal of boosting retention,
achievement, and completion rates. Students will engage in project-based learning that is both interest-based and meaningful and will be encouraged to
design and “make” solutions in a variety of subjects.
Tech savvy high school grads will arrive on college campuses more demanding of engaging and personalized learning.
3. Informal learning. Perhaps the most important trend is the explosion of free and inexpensive informal learning (outside of degree granting
institutions). It could be more accurately called personal learning ( for me rather than for degree). It includes but isn’t limited to
professional (career-oriented) learning. (See 36 ways to learn almost anything.)
4. CareerEd. A new generation of blended applied and accelerated career education creates pathways to lucrative careers. Examples includeCareer Path High School in Utah,GPS Education Partners, and Ptech in NY, IL, and ID.
Next-gen postsecondary career schools, particularly coding bootcamps, are
an alternative to traditional HigherEd in dynamic job categories.
5. Blended. While there will continue to be steady growth in part and fulltime online learning K-20, the larger trend is toward blending the best of
face-to-face and online learning into new learning environments and sequences.
6. Guidance systems. By 2020, many students will have a personal learning plan articulating who they are, where they’re headed and how they’ll get there as
part of their learner profile (see #16). There will be personalized counseling and guidance systems including virtual mentoring and informed postsecondary
decision support connected to youth and family services.
Personalizing and Guiding College & Career Readiness
- Next-gen systems will combine components of Naviance +College Bound + Roadtrip Nation + CampusLogic + Communities in Schools
7. Adaptive. Most learners K-14 will benefit from adaptive learning and automated feedback systems in reading, writing, and math.
8. Free. The explosion of informal learning is driven by free and open education resources (OER). Secondary and postsecondary institutions are moving away
from premium content and adopting free content and OER.
MOOCs and other low cost models will continue to pressure second and third tier HigherEd as, as John Danner said, “mass education is going to be
Most EdApps are launched as free with hopes of building surface area; premium services monetize network effects. By 2020, several versions of the freemium
strategy will be demonstrated pathways to scale and sustainability.
9. Low cost. Also pressuring third tier players is a new crop of low cost GenEd options.
Lost cost private K-12 schools are spreading access to quality in Africa and India.
10. Competency. Long term trends from time to learning, from attendance to demonstration (see discussion from CompetencyWorks). Students will show what
they know through meaningful and comprehensive projects that serve as learning opportunities as well as an ongoing effort to showcase work through
portfolios that can transition into powerful resumes. Several New England states have adopted proficiency based high school diplomas and they are
recognized by state universities.
Professional competence is increasingly codified by a badge or micro-credential, a portfolio of artifacts, and a list
of references. Education may be one of the first professions to move to competency-based preparation with a clear map of educators need to know and be able
to do, multiple ways to learn, and options for demonstrating mastery, no more random courses for continuing credits, just highly relevant job-linked
In dynamic job categories alternative market signaling profiles, portfolios, and references will become more important than degrees
11. Differentiated staffing. K-20 institutions will increasingly utilize distributed and differentiated staffing. Teacher leaders will support grade span
teams, new teachers, and impact. Specialists at a distance will expand student options and improve service delivery. Teacher career pathways will be more
varied and attractive.
personalized and transformative professional development
options for teachers, educators
12. Personalization. The last 20 years of K-12 debate was framed by federal accountability legislation. The next 20 years will be framed not by legislation
but an emerging learner-centered vision (driven by many factors on this list). By 2020, several states will have scaled back standardized testing and will
make better use of the continuous feedback environments that most students benefit from.
13. Performance contracting. By 2020, several states will use performance contracting, charter schools and energy management being current examples, to
authorize and manage the relationship with all schools, universities, and education providers.
14. Performance funding. Replacing compliance and input-driven systems, several states will adopt incentives for completion and achievement. This will open
doors to new models of teaching and learning, while avoiding unintended consequences common in current funding models.
15. Weighted and portable funding. By 2020, a dozen states will have made their funding systems more equitable and a dozen states will have introduced education savings accounts.
See Nevada ESA
16. Learner profiles. Parent-managed K-12 learner profiles and
learner-managed profiles in postsecondary will drive personalization and manage security. Parents (and guardians and mentors) will be play roles as
curators of powerful learning experiences.
18. Platform-centric networks. By 2020, most K-12 districts and HigherEd institutions will have adopted a learning platform (or app ecosystem) and there will be a
dozen scaled platform-centric networks.
Technological advances will continue to support this shift toNext-Gen Learning Platforms, like Buzz from Agilix and learning management
systems, like Canvas will become more and more
19. Mobile. Almost all young adults are learning and communicating on mobile devices. By 2020 nearly every educational institution will be optimized for
20. Smart engines. Machine learning is increasingly behind everything
interesting in K-20 and every big topic of study (e.g., health, climate change, social sciences). Machine learning is powering adaptive learning,
recommendation engines, writing feedback, dynamic scheduling, staffing models, and lunch menus.
It’s getting easier to learn anything anywhere. It’s getting easier to create learning environments that work better for teachers and students. What else
would you add to the list of things likely to be better by 2020? Leave a comment or Tweet us, @Getting_Smart
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The opinions expressed in Vander Ark on Innovation are strictly those of the author(s) and do not reflect the opinions or endorsement of Editorial Projects in Education, or any of its publications.