Education

How Should District Leaders Respond to Rising COVID-19 Rates in States?

By Sarah D. Sparks — October 21, 2020 5 min read
  • Save to favorites
  • Print

Coronavirus rates are surging across much of the country again. That means school district leaders must prepare to make quick decisions about how they are operating.

There are two main ways to look at how much the coronavirus has spread in a community:


  • the case rate;—or the number of people identified with COVID-19 for every 100,000 people in the community;—and
  • the positivity rate, or the percentage of the tests given in a community that come back positive for the virus. If a community has limited testing, it is likely to have a higher percentage of those tests come back positive, both because more infectious people are not tested and thus not isolating themselves, and because those who do get tested are more likely to be those with more obvious symptoms.

According to the latest seven-day average from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 22 states have an infection rate higher than 20 per 100,000 people. Four states—Montana, North and South Dakota, and Wisconsin—all have case rates more than 50 per 100,000, which the CDC considers moderately high risk for schools.

Johns Hopkins University’s Coronavirus Resource Center, which tracks coronavirus testing, finds the percentage of tests coming back positive for COVID-19 during the same seven-day period is rising in 33 states and is higher than 5 percent in 32 states. Both the CDC and the World Health Organization consider any positivity rate above 5 percent to mark high risk for outbreaks.

“Once you start to escalate above that 5 percent test positivity rate, then you know there’s an increased amount of transmission occurring in the community, meaning that there would be an increased risk for COVID in the school setting,” said Tina Tan, a pediatric infectious disease doctor at Lurie Children’s Hospital in Chicago and a coronavirus expert with the Infectious Disease Society of America.

“One thing to keep in mind is anybody who gets COVID can transmit COVID. So even though the majority of cases in children or asymptomatic, they are still able to transmit the virus,” said Tan, who has been working with districts on their remote- and in-person learning plans. So far, research suggests that infected children and adults have about the same amount of virus particles in their respiratory tracks, but for some as-yet unknown reason, children under age 10 appear to transmit the virus less than adolescents and adults.

“Some people are saying, why don’t we bring back, say pre-K to 3rd grade for in-person learning. And then we’ll do kind of a hybrid model for the kids that are a little bit older and then high school can be all virtual,” Tan said, “But whether or not it’s applicable will depend upon the resources that the school district has as well as what protective mitigation protocols they are able to put in place.”

She said all in-person schools, be they full or part-time should require universal mask-wearing for all students, teacher, and staff except when they are eating, along with six-foot social distancing and regular handwashing. Tan also recommended any in-person classes group students into cohorts and require students to eat lunch in their classrooms to avoid mixing different groups.

Now is also a good time for school leaders to double down on ensuring students and staff are up to date on vaccinations for all the other seasonal and childhood illnesses, following years of increasing outbreaks in measles, whooping cough, and seasonal flu.

“One of the unintended consequences of the pandemic has been a dramatic decline in the rate of routine immunizations,” Tan said, and while many precautions against COVID-19 can also buffer against things like the flu or measles, reduced immunizations will lower herd immunity against preventable childhood diseases.

While all public schools are required to track symptoms and have procedures in place to quarantine those who are sick, plans for universal COVID-19 testing may be less effective, researchers say. For example, San Diego Unified schools, which started in-school learning for small numbers of highly vulnerable students this week, requested enough COVID-19 tests from the state for every student and staff member in order to provide larger-scale in-person learning, but Tan said even rapid-response tests could miss many in the early stages of the disease, and results may not come back quickly enough to track and isolate those who are infected.

In fact, one recent Mathematica study suggests strong preventative measures including mask-wearing and social distancing can give schools a wide buffer to respond to potential outbreaks.

“It turns out that the delays in getting a test back matter a good bit, but depending on what you are doing,” said Brian Gill, lead researcher for the study of more than 400,000 school reopening scenarios at different grade levels, precautions, and community infection rates. “If you’re trying to run a school full time without precautions, if you were pretending that you could operate business as usual, then delays in getting tests back can substantially increase infection rates,” he said. Holding class fully in-person with precautions still can lead to outbreaks if test results take several days, but significantly fewer infections than in schools without precautions.

“Then when you get to the part-time, small-group hybrid approaches, it turns out the testing time doesn’t matter much, essentially because ... if you’ve got small groups, only a couple of days a week with masks and six feet of distance, then you’ve almost eliminated transmission occurring in the school anyway,” Gill said.

However, in the burgeoning number of communities—and at least five states—where 20 percent or more of COVID-19 tests come back positive, Tan warned, “that is a lot of virus that’s circulating in that community. And it probably is not a good idea to continue any in-person learning in that situation. ... No matter how small your hybrid group is, these kids don’t live at the school. So if community rates are really high, then that just increases the risk of someone bringing COVID in from the community to the school.”

“There’s ongoing research, but until we get a better handle on what the transmission dynamics are, we know that anybody with COVID can transmit the virus. So, I think you have to be very conservative and very safe.”

Chart Source: CDC COVID-19 Data Tracker

See Also:

Related Tags:

A version of this news article first appeared in the Inside School Research blog.
A version of this article appeared in the October 28, 2020 edition of Education Week as How Should District Leaders Respond to Rising COVID-19 Rates in States?


Commenting has been disabled on edweek.org effective Sept. 8. Please visit our FAQ section for more details. To get in touch with us visit our contact page, follow us on social media, or submit a Letter to the Editor.


Events

This content is provided by our sponsor. It is not written by and does not necessarily reflect the views of Education Week's editorial staff.
Sponsor
Teaching Webinar
What’s Next for Teaching and Learning? Key Trends for the New School Year
The past 18 months changed the face of education forever, leaving teachers, students, and families to adapt to unprecedented challenges in teaching and learning. As we enter the third school year affected by the pandemic—and
Content provided by Instructure
This content is provided by our sponsor. It is not written by and does not necessarily reflect the views of Education Week's editorial staff.
Sponsor
Curriculum Webinar
How Data and Digital Curriculum Can Drive Personalized Instruction
As we return from an abnormal year, it’s an educator’s top priority to make sure the lessons learned under adversity positively impact students during the new school year. Digital curriculum has emerged from the pandemic
Content provided by Kiddom
This content is provided by our sponsor. It is not written by and does not necessarily reflect the views of Education Week's editorial staff.
Sponsor
Equity & Diversity Webinar
Leadership for Racial Equity in Schools and Beyond
While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to reveal systemic racial disparities in educational opportunity, there are revelations to which we can and must respond. Through conscientious efforts, using an intentional focus on race, school leaders can
Content provided by Corwin

EdWeek Top School Jobs

Teacher Jobs
Search over ten thousand teaching jobs nationwide — elementary, middle, high school and more.
View Jobs
Principal Jobs
Find hundreds of jobs for principals, assistant principals, and other school leadership roles.
View Jobs
Administrator Jobs
Over a thousand district-level jobs: superintendents, directors, more.
View Jobs
Support Staff Jobs
Search thousands of jobs, from paraprofessionals to counselors and more.
View Jobs

Read Next

Education Judge's Temporary Order Allows Iowa Schools to Mandate Masks
A federal judge ordered the state to immediately halt enforcement of a law that prevents school boards from ordering masks to be worn.
4 min read
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds speaks to reporters following a news conference, Thursday, Aug. 19, 2021, in West Des Moines, Iowa. Reynolds lashed out at President Joe Biden Thursday after he ordered his education secretary to explore possible legal action against states that have blocked school mask mandates and other public health measures meant to protect students against COVID-19. Reynolds, a Republican, has signed a bill into law that prohibits school officials from requiring masks, raising concerns as delta variant virus cases climb across the state and schools resume classes soon. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Education Hurricane Ida Deals New Blow to Louisiana Schools Struggling to Reopen
The opening of the school year offered teachers a chance to fully assess the pandemic's effects, only to have students forced out again.
8 min read
Six-year-old Mary-Louise Lacobon sits on a fallen tree beside the remnants of her family's home destroyed by Hurricane Ida, in Dulac, La., on Sept. 4, 2021. Louisiana students, who were back in class after a year and a half of COVID-19 disruptions kept many of them at home, are now missing school again after Hurricane Ida. A quarter-million public school students statewide have no school to report to, though top educators are promising a return is, at most, weeks away, not months.
Six-year-old Mary-Louise Lacobon sits on a fallen tree beside the remnants of her family's home destroyed by Hurricane Ida, in Dulac, La., on Sept. 4, 2021.
John Locher/AP
Education Massachusetts National Guard to Help With Busing Students to School
250 guard personnel will be available to serve as drivers of school transport vans, as districts nationwide struggle to hire enough drivers.
1 min read
Massachusetts National Guard soldiers help with logistics in this Friday, April 17, 2020 file photo, at a food distribution site outside City Hall, in Chelsea, Mass. Mass. Gov. Charlie Baker on Monday, Sept. 13, 2021, activated the state's National Guard to help with busing students to school as districts across the country struggle to hire enough drivers.
Massachusetts National Guard soldiers help with logistics in this Friday, April 17, 2020 file photo, at a food distribution site outside City Hall, in Chelsea, Mass.
Michael Dwyer/AP
Education FDA: ‘Very, Very Hopeful’ COVID Shots Will Be Ready for Younger Kids This Year
Dr. Peter Marks said he is hopeful that COVID-19 vaccinations for 5- to 11-year-olds will be underway by year’s end. Maybe sooner.
4 min read
Dr. Peter Marks, director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research in the Food and Drug Administration, testifies during a Senate health, education, labor, and pensions hearing to examine an update from federal officials on efforts to combat COVID-19 on Capitol Hill in Washington on May 11, 2021. On Friday, Sept. 10, 2021, Marks urged parents to be patient, saying the agency will rapidly evaluate vaccines for 5- to 11-year-olds as soon as it gets the needed data.
Dr. Peter Marks, director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research in the Food and Drug Administration, testifies during a Senate health, education, labor, and pensions hearing to examine an update from federal officials on efforts to combat COVID-19 on Capitol Hill in Washington on May 11, 2021.
Jim Lo Scalzo/AP