New Approach to Graduation Data Finds Falling Rates in Most States

Fueling the debate over high school graduation statistics, a University of Minnesota researcher is proposing a new way to gauge how states measure up when it comes to graduating students on time.

But his method points to the same disappointing conclusion as other techniques to gauge school completion rates that have sprung up in recent years: In states across the nation, high school graduation rates are slowly but steadily falling.

John Robert Warren, an associate professor of sociology at the university’s Twin Cities campus, calculates that school completion rates declined between 1975 and 2002, both nationally and in 41 of the 50 states. By 2002, the study estimates, about 72 percent of students who were on track to finish high school actually graduated on time, compared with more than...