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Graduation Predictors

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Freshman-year grades and attendance are the two most important factors predicting on-time high school graduation in the Chicago district, according to a study by the Consortium on Chicago School Research.

The report on the district’s graduation patterns, released Aug. 14, found that freshmen who maintain a B average have a 93 percent chance of graduating in four years, and an 80 percent chance of finishing high school with a B average or higher. Freshmen who carry a C average have a 72 percent chance of graduating in four years, and those with a D average have only a 28 percent chance.

Freshmen with poor attendance are also less likely to graduate on time. The study found that freshmen who missed 10 to 14 days of class per semester had a 40 percent chance of completing high school in four years, and those who missed five to nine days had a 63 percent chance. Those who missed fewer than five days had an 87 percent chance of finishing on time.

Vol. 27, Issue 01, Page 5

Published in Print: August 29, 2007, as Graduation Predictors

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