The finalists for the Race to the Top Round 2 competition are supposed to be announced on Tuesday by Education Secretary Arne Duncan during a 1 p.m. speech to the National Press Club, which you should be able to watch via webcast through the club’s website. The Education Department is expected to issue a press release about the same time. Of course, stay tuned to Politics K-12 for the latest.

Together with my colleague Lesli Maxwell, from State EdWatch, we’ve come up with our guesses for who will make the cut for Round 2 and a chance at some of the $3.4 billion in federal stimulus funding still on the table.

Lesli and I are guessing there will be 20 finalists, given that Duncan has said there will be 10 to 15 winners in Round 2. So the list of finalists has to be longer than that to give the in-person presentations to the judges some real meaning when they start the week of Aug. 9 in Washington, D.C.

We made our picks based on the final state scores from Round 1, with a dark horse candidate (Oklahoma, which made some significant education reform changes in recent weeks) included for good measure. And Lesli explains why California and Maryland make our list.

So, here’s our list. After you’re done looking at our takes, let us know in the comment section who would make your list.

Arkansas
California
Colorado
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Illinois
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey
New York
North Carolina
Ohio
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina