Published: October 2, 2002

Predictable Casualties

The practical effect of the increased emphasis on high- stakes standardized tests is that dropout rates will increase.

As our children returned to school this fall, they faced an increasing emphasis on standardized tests that ultimately will determine their life chances. Within the next two years, more than half the states will use student scores on these tests to determine promotion and graduation. The expected result is that students who do not perform up to expectations will have to repeat the grade. The practical effect is that dropout rates will increase and fewer students will graduate.

Which children are most likely to drop out? The fact is most of the children will be from low-income families. These are the children who must fight the odds of an uneven playing field both because of their poverty and because of the inadequate resources devoted to their schools. Poverty is the major variable predicting low educational achievement. It is associated with a wide range of factors—low parental education, poor health and nutrition, and a host of social problems—which make it difficult for children to compete academically. Children from low-income families, on average, start school with fewer academic skills than do more affluent children. Low-income parents are less likely to participate in their children's education—a predictable outcome because of educational background, inadequate financial resources, and inadequate time. They are less able to help with homework, pay for tutors, or afford the cram courses that more advantaged children are routinely given to raise test scores. Indeed, it is quite remarkable that many of these children overcome the odds and excel academically. Yet, the fact remains that their probability of doing so is significantly lower than it is for affluent children.

The odds against these children are compounded by the fact that as a nation we devote the fewest educational resources to children whose families have the fewest resources. Per-pupil expenditures are lower, the infrastructure and educational materials are inferior, and—most important—low-income communities are less likely to have access to qualified teachers. Salaries are lower, working conditions are more demanding, and, as a result, out-of-field teaching and teacher shortages are higher. In addition to large inequities in public funding, schools in low- income communities do not have access to the rather significant parental contributions that...