Testing's Ups and Downs Predictable

By David J. Hoff

When Washington state education officials released the results from the third year of their testing program, they celebrated. Fourth and 7th graders' scores had increased in just about every subject.

Across the country, however, their counterparts in Maryland had somber news. For the first time in the seven-year history of that state's program, scores dipped, though only slightly.

Both announcements made headlines in their respective states. But the stories could have been written long ago by testing experts. Test scores follow a predictable cycle, researchers have found. They start low, rise quickly for a couple of years, level off for a few more, and then...